CNBC is usually playing in the background on a TV in my office.  In addition to hard news, financial and otherwise, they have and endless stream of talking heads and commentators, both their own and outside guests, throwing opinion and predictions at the audience.

Last week the equity markets were particularly volatile, so I was paying a bit more attention.  At one point on a sharply down day, they put on a guest who told us that he was predicting the S&P 500 Index would finish the year higher than where it was as he was speaking.  He seemed very sure of himself.  Continue reading →