Their Loss Could Be Your Gain…

Last year Americans purchased 16.3 million cars and light trucks.  At the same time approximately 2.2 million of them were repossessed.  That last number was up significantly and estimated to rise even further in 2026.  That means there was almost one repossession for every seven new vehicles sold.

New cars have risen to stratospheric prices since the pandemic ended.  Loans that used to be 3-5 years for the typical buyer have now stretched to 6 or even 8 years in some cases.  We are also in a K shaped economy, where the top 50 percent of us are doing pretty well and the bottom 50 percent not as much.  Some buyers have bitten off more than they can chew, or their circumstances have changed.

When someone misses car or lease payments, eventually the “snatch man” will come and take the car.  The finance company will then sell the car to recoup as much of the outstanding balance on the loan as possible.  Invariably they will sell the car at a dealer auction, in a process known as wholesaling.

A dealer auction is a marketplace, increasingly online, where the buyers and sellers are finance companies or car dealers of some sort.  Unlike consumer auctions like Bring a Trailer or some classic vehicle sites, you the general public are not welcome.  The pricing at these auctions is usually well below what a vehicle would sell for either privately or at a dealership.  In general, car dealers buy these vehicles, clean them up, sometimes add a warranty and mark up the price by many thousands of dollars.

What if you could buy the repossessed vehicle at the dealer auction for far less money than the final retail price?  Often you can.  There are “dealers” who although they don’t have a sales lot, meet the standards of the dealer auction.  They will buy these cars on consignment for the public.  You, the buyer select the car you would like to buy from the auction’s online selection and tell your dealer what the maximum is you would pay for that vehicle.  For comparison, auction results are available for the previous few auctions. 

Since the dealer auctions are now heavily online, most cars have a Carfax report, and the auctions offer sellers an independent 3rd party evaluation of the vehicle.  This evaluation has tons of photos and a description of any damage or missing parts, trim, keys, etc.

Your dealer will bid online for a car you select up to your maximum price.  If you win the auction, you pay the sales price, a buyer’s auction fee, and a fee to the dealer – usually $750-1,250 (sometimes a bit more for high end luxury or sports cars).  You will also pay for the transportation of the vehicle to the dealer, as the auctions are not usually local.  From a transactional standpoint, the dealer buys the car from the auction, and you buy the car from the dealer.  You then pay tax, title and registration fees – sometimes your dealer can help you with that as well.  It’s important to remember that financing can be a bit more difficult in these situations.  Traditional banks usually won’t finance a car not purchased at a new car or national chain used car dealership.  So, if you want to finance an auction purchase, you may have to do some homework.  On the other hand, these cars will usually appraise (remember they are using book value) for far more than what you are paying, so loan to value should be an easy hurdle to clear.  Your dealer will also require you to give them a deposit prior to bidding for you.  That protects them and is refundable if you don’t win an auction.

A car is a depreciating asset.  It is possible to buy a late model, low mileage repo or off lease for many thousands less than retail.  As an example, the Toyota RAV4 is the most popular car in the country.  It is likely that this purchase method could lead to a savings of $10K or more over a comparable late model trade in on a dealer lot.  Many of these cars will also still have the balance of the factory warranty.  A soft economy and continued repossessions are only going to make these purchases even more compelling.

A note to my business owner clients and friends, this is also a viable option for your light business work trucks.

The Bottom Line:  Take advantage of economic opportunities.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

This Drawing Changed Everything For Me…

Last week I wanted to comment on x.com in the wake of the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling.  I always try to add an image of some sort when I post.  In this case, I thought of something that would be eye catching.

Usually the images I select, whether on this blog, x.com or LinkedIn are photographic.  Historically, I have used stock photos and more recently I have tried image generation.  The generation was nothing very specific, just generic, which always seemed OK. 

For this one I had a drawing in my mind and decided to try “AI” image generation.  This is what I put in the description of my request”

“Create a cartoon image in caricature and landscape format. A train track running across the entire image. A steam engine on the left side stopped in the tracks, with “Trump Crazy Train” written on the boiler and Donald Trump wearing overalls and a red engineers cap saying “Make America Great Again” On the right side facing the train on the tracks are caricatures of the six justices in robes who voted against the tariffs and a caricature of the Supreme Court building across the tracks behind the justices with “Supreme Court” written on the building.”

A single paragraph and the image above is what I got.  It took about a minute.  It blew me away.  It was probably 90% of what I envisioned in my mind.  I probably could have further refined it, but in this case it wasn’t necessary.

It made me see AI in a whole new light.  It’s not just advanced computing with faster processing and more data.  It’s Revolutionary as opposed Evolutionary.  It’s game changing already.  In a way that even the dot com internet wasn’t.

Think about just this project.  It clearly doesn’t bode well for illustrators, cartoonists, the software that they use, or the companies and programmers that create and maintain that software.

I now see the world in a different light.  It will influence how I see the economy, investment opportunities for my clients, and how I run my business.  I’m smart and wise enough to realize there will be shakeouts and winners and losers on this journey, but the train has left the station.

The Bottom Line:  This Blew Me Away.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

The Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles.  A Dual Threat?

Today is Black Friday, the biggest consumer FOMO Day of the year.  Shoppers go nuts to track down the best deals ever on that special something that someone can’t live without.  Items that will cost far more tomorrow, if not this afternoon.  Never mind that many of the items will be available for much less on December 26th.

Think back for a moment to the 2003 to 2007 period, our previous economic FOMO period.  We had low mortgage interest rates and lax underwriting standards for them.  Home buyers flocked to the cheap easy money, often with no income or other documentation required.  The housing demand generated by these loans drove prices up significantly.  Buyers were paying prices for homes and borrowing amounts they could not economically afford. 

Interest rates began climbing in this period, and by 2007 had reached levels that made the payments on the prevalent adjustable-rate mortgages unaffordable.  The owners of those houses could not make the new payments, and fewer new buyers could afford to buy.  This reversed the uptrend in housing prices and put many owners underwater, meaning they couldn’t make their payments or even sell the home.  It accelerated into a housing price collapse.

The crisis, which first hit banks and then the investment markets, tipped the economy into a recession.  Rising unemployment rates put more homes into foreclosure and deepened the recession.  It was the dual events of an artificially fueled housing bubble bursting and high unemployment from a real recession that brought the whole house of cards down, ending up with the the worst economy the US had seen since the Great Depression.

Fast forward to today and we face another FOMO Dual Risk.

The investment markets are currently floated by a small handful of companies in the tech sector.  If this bubble were to burst, many levered investors would be hit with margin calls.  They would face two choices: Sell those stocks into weakness often locking in losses and further weakening share prices.  Or, use cash or other capital to meet the margin calls.

But…

Today a notable amount of “other capital” is in Bitcoin and other similar crypto.  Crypto is not cash, but a commodity and would need to be sold to pledge against a margin call.  This could create a run on the bank in crypto, depressing those values – who knows how far.

And there we have it, another Dual Threat risk.  This could be even bigger than in 2007.

Stay Tuned…

The Bottom Line:  Understand all the risks.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

Pop Goes The Power Supply…

Every now and then, an infrequent purchase comes up.  This week a power supply on one of our desktop computers died with a big popping noise.  It’s an easy swap, 4 screws and a couple of snap connecters – a less than 10 minute process.  I ordered one at the end of the day and it arrived at lunchtime the next day.

The new one cost $31.99.  In my head that was considerably more than the last one we had purchased.  I was right.  The last time we purchased one, it was $24.99 in January 2019.  That’s an increase of 28% in 4.5 years.  The first two of those years were in a lower inflation period.  It works out to an average annual increase of 5.6% – likely much more since 2021 started.  This is a commodity item that hasn’t changed (same wattage, and certainly no new patents apply). 

Purchases like this make it clear that inflation is running hotter than the official statistics the government puts in front of us.  It seems clear that for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to adjust to the new normal.  This is a reminder to adjust inflation assumptions in your Financial Planning.

The Bottom Line:  Incorporate the real world in your Financial Planning.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

Choice Is Great…

A few years ago, I went to a social event at a friend’s house.  At the time he was employed in a tech sales position at one of the major tech firms.  I noticed all kinds of wires and devices connected to his TV in the living room. 

When I inquired he proceeded to tell me he had “cut the cord” from the cable company, and was able to replicate the service for a lower price.  He proceeded to show me, a digital antenna to get broadcast channels, a DVR to record programs, and some sort of router that made all of this available to all the TV’s throughout the house.

It all seemed so complex at the time, but he was one of those guys who could make it work and troubleshoot when necessary.  I do remember his savings were notable however.  It seemed cool, but at the time it was a tech mountain I wasn’t ready to climb.

Cutting the cord has become more of a thing in recent years.  Some of it was the young people who had no interest in linear TV, and were happy with Netflix and chill.  Others got tired of subsidizing hundreds of channels they mostly didn’t watch, especially expensive local and national sports channels which were must carry on basic cable and added notable cost to the monthly bill.  Who do you think pays for the multi-million dollar salaries of the players on the local NBA team?

In recent years I had watched the cost of my cable bill increase notably, probably a good 75 percent since the pandemic started.  Recently, the cable company instituted data caps on my internet service.  This meant I could buy up to a higher service level month in and month out, or pay an even higher penalty fee in months I pierced the cap.  Something had to give.

I started to dig.  First I found a few streaming services that were able to deliver the channels we most watched and the local ones (no antenna needed) on any TV in the house without the need for additional equipment rental, for a stunningly lower price.  That sounded great, but I looked into the cost of internet service only from the cable company and it seemed they had you. 

Or did they?  The old traditional phone company did not offer fiber optic service where I live.  Their DSL offering just won’t cut it in the 21st century.  I thought I was screwed.  But then I came across an ad for one of the cell phone carriers offering 5G service for the home.  I learned for that to work well, you need to be somewhat near the tower – 5G has limited range, and that tower can’t be oversubscribed.  They offered a free trial, so I took them up on it.  I ended up with great service and speed.

Now I have cut the cord.  I have everything I want for about half the price.  There is a lesson here.  Competition works for the consumer.  As long as we don’t allow monopolies, the invisible hand of economics works.

If you haven’t cut the cord, you might want to check it out.  Just don’t sign up for my tower.

The Bottom Line:  Believe in and take advantage of free markets.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

Resist The Temptation…

It’s finally time to get a new car.  The supply shortages have eased and there is inventory. 

But, a few things have changed…

Prices are much higher, and interest rates have skyrocketed.  The average new car sells for over $45K and interest rates are in the 8-10% range.  Even used cars are far more expensive.

If you have a 401(k) plan, you may be able to take a loan from your plan to finance the new car.  Most 401(k) plans allow for participant loans.  Some rules and rates are set by your individual plan, but regulations say a plan loan cannot exceed 5 years or $50,000.  You also must make level payments at least quarterly.

There are some alluring advantages to using a plan loan to finance a vehicle purchase.  Interest rates are often lower than bank sourced auto loans.  You are paying interest to yourself, in a period where your portfolio may not be growing much due to market and economic conditions.  It doesn’t affect your credit score, and there is no lean on the vehicle title.  What’s not to like?

The plan loan comes with a big risk.  If your employment terminates for any reason, the entire loan balance becomes due.  Depending on the plan, it’s usually immediately or at months end.  It does not matter, why your employment terminated.  Whether you quit, got fired, or laid off, it’s all the same – the balance is due.

If you do not repay the loan, it will be considered a plan distribution.  That means it becomes taxable income, subject to ordinary income tax and a 10% penalty if you are under age 59 1/2.  Depending on your financial situation, that can range from an annoyance to a nightmare.  It carries risk under good economic times, and can influence a decision on whether to switch jobs.  Now that the economy faces some risk of a recession, a layoff is not when you want a large bill, either loan repayment or tax.

Everyone has their own financial situation and plan.  Depending on yours, you may be better off resisting the temptation of a plan loan.

The Bottom Line:  Evaluate all the risks of a 401(k) plan loan.

–Michael Ross, CFP®

Is Your Car Lease Coming To An End?

If your car lease is expiring in the coming months, it MAY have a buyout purchase option.  This means you have an option to buy the car at a previously set price.  This price was set based upon the predicted residual value of the car at the end of the lease when you entered into the contract.  Check your lease to see if yours has a buyout.  If it does, you may want to consider executing the buyout for a number of reasons.

  1. New cars are in short supply mostly due to chip shortages.  As with anything in short supply, they are more expensive than usual.  By buying or leasing a new car now you would be locking in a high price.
  2. The prices of used cars are way up due to the new car shortage.
  3. Your current leased vehicle may have lower mileage due to curtailed driving in the pandemic.
  4. The buyout price may be well below the current market value of the vehicle.
  5. By buying the car you avoid the damage inspection and assessments for often minor issues when a leased car gets turned in.
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In The Beginning…

One of the projects I undertook over the past few weeks, was to redesign this blog.  I had never liked the design that was originally imbedded with our website and two years ago I decided to use a separate host.  I picked a template and configured it – at least as best I could.  To be generous, it sucked.  After a while, I just stopped posting – frankly, I was a bit embarrassed by it and it was way too distracting. Fixing it is one of those things that just never got to the top of the to do list. Until now.

I have been writing Financial In$ight for three decades.  It morphed from a monthly printed and mailed newsletter to a blog.  Communicating with our clients and followers is important.  The financial world is a big place and I cherish the opportunity to make it a bit smaller.  I needed to solve this problem.

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Three Weeks

CNBC is usually playing in the background on a TV in my office.  In addition to hard news, financial and otherwise, they have and endless stream of talking heads and commentators, both their own and outside guests, throwing opinion and predictions at the audience.

Last week the equity markets were particularly volatile, so I was paying a bit more attention.  At one point on a sharply down day, they put on a guest who told us that he was predicting the S&P 500 Index would finish the year higher than where it was as he was speaking.  He seemed very sure of himself.  Continue reading

In The Blink Of An Eye

This month marks 30 years ago that I started my own firm.  At the time, I was working at a local Financial Planning firm that was actually pretty progressive for that era.

When I had started there some two years earlier, one of my colleagues, Jacquie, took me under her wing and taught me much about employee benefits.  That became an important career skill for me.  Jacquie had left the firm in the spring of 1988 for another endeavor.  Like many breakups I guess there were bad feelings between her and the firm’s ownership.   She was very involved in a local business association and they sponsored a running race that September to benefit a charity.  I was a runner (I still am) and I ran in the race.  I saw Jacquie at the race and spent some time catching up with her. Continue reading